* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP02 EP022010 06/16/10 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP022010 EP02 06/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 25. 14.6 -95.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0616 12 4.8 1.6 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP02 06/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.4 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)