* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL11 AL112009 11/05/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL112009 AL11 11/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL11 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 13.1 -83.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1105 18 0.0 52.8 09 1105 12 8.2 4.1 09 1105 06 44.3 1.4 09 1105 00 0.0 8.2 09 1104 18 28.6 0.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112009 AL11 11/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)