* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP20 EP202009 10/16/09 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP202009 EP20 10/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 85% is 6.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 85% is 11.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 80% is 14.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 65% is 15.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP20 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 12.6 -99.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 81%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 88%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1016 12 0.0 6.4 09 1016 06 0.0 8.3 09 1016 00 0.0 15.6 09 1015 18 0.5 18.7 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP202009 EP20 10/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.5 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 83% is 7.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 60% is 17.1 times the sample mean( 3.8%)