* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP20 EP202009 10/16/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP202009 EP20 10/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 82% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 82% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 76% is 13.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 59% is 14.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP20 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 12.4 -97.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 80%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 89%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1016 06 0.0 25.6 09 1016 00 0.0 15.6 09 1015 18 0.5 18.7 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP202009 EP20 10/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 8.1 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)