* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP19 EP192009 10/12/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP192009 EP19 10/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 19.5 -110.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1012 18 836.8 0.0 09 1012 12 333.2 0.0 09 1012 06 76.0 0.0 09 1012 00 31.7 0.0 09 1011 18 4.6 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP192009 EP19 10/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 268.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 86% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 11.9 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)