* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL10 AL102009 10/07/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL102009 AL10 10/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL10 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 19.1 -57.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 1007 18 1.6 1.6 09 1007 12 11.2 0.0 09 1007 06 147.4 1.4 09 1007 00 31.4 0.7 09 1006 18 2.2 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL RE-RUN ATLANTIC RII AL102009 AL10 10/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.8 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)