* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL07 AL072009 09/19/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL072009 AL07 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL07 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 26.2 -68.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0919 00 3.2 0.0 09 0918 18 124.1 0.0 09 0918 12 27.8 0.0 09 0916 00 66.8 4.1 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL RE-RUN ATLANTIC RII AL072009 AL07 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)