* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP16 EP162009 09/18/09 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP162009 EP16 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP16 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 20.2 -114.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0918 12 254.4 0.0 09 0918 06 26.2 0.0 09 0918 00 9.9 0.0 09 0917 18 3.0 0.0 09 0917 12 5.3 0.0 09 0917 06 0.0 0.0 09 0917 00 15.2 0.0 09 0916 18 114.5 0.0 09 0916 12 80.4 0.0 09 0916 06 104.6 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP162009 EP16 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.5 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)