* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP15 EP152009 09/12/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP152009 EP15 09/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 20.8 -131.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0912 00 0.0 0.0 09 0911 18 0.0 0.0 09 0911 12 0.0 0.0 09 0911 06 0.0 0.0 09 0911 00 4.8 0.0 09 0910 18 132.4 0.0 09 0910 12 5.5 0.0 09 0910 06 0.0 0.0 09 0910 00 0.0 0.0 09 0909 18 0.0 0.0 09 0909 12 0.0 0.0 09 0909 06 0.0 0.0 09 0909 00 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP152009 EP15 09/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.8/ -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.9 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 306.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.8%)