* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP15 EP152009 09/08/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP152009 EP15 09/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 15.3 -127.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0908 00 0.0 0.0 09 0907 18 0.0 0.0 09 0907 12 0.0 0.0 09 0907 06 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP152009 EP15 09/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.9 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 25.0 to 105.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.8%)