* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL06 AL062009 09/02/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL062009 AL06 09/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL06 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 16.9 -58.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0902 06 27.2 9.6 09 0902 00 145.3 0.7 09 0901 18 0.0 0.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL RE-RUN ATLANTIC RII AL062009 AL06 09/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.3 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 76.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 370.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)