* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP13 EP132009 09/02/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP132009 EP13 09/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP13 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 100. 22.6 -111.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0902 00 0.0 6.4 09 0901 18 0.0 10.6 09 0901 12 0.7 6.4 09 0901 06 10.9 5.2 09 0901 00 2.9 0.6 09 0831 18 0.6 1.2 09 0831 12 0.0 4.6 09 0831 06 1.2 0.6 09 0831 00 4.0 0.6 09 0830 18 5.8 10.9 09 0830 12 1.7 1.2 09 0830 06 0.6 4.6 09 0830 00 0.0 7.1 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP132009 EP13 09/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.7 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.8 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)