* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP14 EP142009 08/30/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP142009 EP14 08/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP14 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 13.2 -122.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0830 00 0.0 0.0 09 0829 18 0.0 0.0 09 0829 12 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP142009 EP14 08/30/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 267.0 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)