* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL05 AL052009 08/28/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL052009 AL05 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 30.1 -75.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0828 18 3.2 59.2 09 0828 12 1.1 0.8 09 0828 06 60.1 8.1 09 0828 00 0.0 10.6 09 0827 18 0.0 4.5 09 0827 12 0.0 11.6 09 0827 06 2.5 5.6 09 0827 00 23.7 12.6 09 0826 18 0.5 11.6 09 0826 12 6.8 58.1 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 AL05 08/28/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.1 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)