* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL05 AL052009 08/27/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL052009 AL05 08/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 25.7 -71.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0827 00 75.2 40.0 09 0826 18 0.5 11.6 09 0826 12 6.8 58.1 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL RE-RUN ATLANTIC RII AL052009 AL05 08/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 255.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)