* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP11 EP112009 08/26/09 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP112009 EP11 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP11 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 13.5 -150.9 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0826 12 158.4 0.0 09 0826 06 533.3 0.0 09 0826 00 50.0 0.0 09 0825 18 75.0 0.0 09 0825 12 10.0 0.0 09 0825 06 0.0 0.0 09 0825 00 0.0 0.0 09 0824 18 0.0 0.0 09 0824 12 0.0 0.0 09 0824 06 0.0 0.0 09 0824 00 5.0 0.0 09 0823 18 25.0 0.0 09 0823 12 77.2 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP112009 EP11 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)