* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL04 AL042009 08/17/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL042009 AL04 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL04 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 29.8 -85.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0817 00 3.2 35.2 09 0816 18 20.7 14.4 09 0816 12 113.1 0.9 09 0816 06 14.1 9.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042009 AL04 08/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.6 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)