* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL03 AL032009 08/16/09 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 ATLANTIC Re-run RII AL032009 AL03 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL03 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 11.4 -36.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0816 06 3.2 0.0 09 0816 00 0.0 0.0 09 0815 18 0.0 0.0 09 0815 12 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL RE-RUN ATLANTIC RII AL032009 AL03 08/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)