* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP10 EP102009 08/12/09 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP102009 EP10 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP10 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 15.0 -115.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0812 12 0.0 1.6 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP102009 EP10 08/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.4 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)