* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP04 EP042009 07/15/09 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP042009 EP04 07/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP04 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 90. 10.0 -128.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0715 00 4.8 0.0 09 0714 18 5.5 0.0 09 0714 12 0.0 0.0 09 0714 06 5.5 0.0 09 0714 00 5.5 0.0 09 0713 18 0.0 0.0 09 0713 12 0.0 0.0 09 0713 06 0.0 2.3 09 0713 00 2.3 0.0 09 0712 18 6.8 0.0 09 0712 12 175.8 0.0 09 0712 06 2.5 0.0 09 0712 00 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP042009 EP04 07/15/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 284.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)