* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP04 EP042009 07/10/09 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2009 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP042009 EP04 07/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP04 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 10.2 -113.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 09 0710 18 0.0 0.0 09 0710 12 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2009 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP042009 EP04 07/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 46.6 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.1 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)