* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL17 AL172008 11/08/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL172008 AL17 11/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 mb RH : 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL17 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 100. 18.9 -81.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1108 00 62.4 4.8 08 1107 18 10.2 0.7 08 1107 12 8.2 54.5 08 1107 06 1.4 175.7 08 1107 00 0.0 53.1 08 1106 18 1.4 18.4 08 1106 12 0.0 6.1 08 1106 06 8.9 5.4 08 1106 00 49.0 25.9 08 1105 18 22.5 2.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL172008 AL17 11/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 636.2 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)