* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL17 AL172008 11/06/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL172008 AL17 11/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL17 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 15.3 -82.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1106 12 0.0 14.4 08 1106 06 8.9 5.4 08 1106 00 49.0 25.9 08 1105 18 22.5 2.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL172008 AL17 11/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.8 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)