* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL15 AL152008 10/18/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152008 AL15 10/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 mb RH : 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 31.2 -53.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1018 00 0.0 6.4 08 1017 18 30.0 0.0 08 1017 12 110.2 1.6 08 1017 06 3.2 1.1 08 1017 00 0.0 48.1 08 1016 18 0.0 47.1 08 1016 12 37.4 93.5 08 1016 06 168.0 148.1 08 1016 00 71.7 121.7 08 1015 18 27.5 83.3 08 1015 12 18.3 25.8 08 1015 06 55.8 8.3 08 1015 00 125.0 13.3 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152008 AL15 10/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 85.8 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 396.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)