*   ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS        *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  AL15        AL152008  10/14/08  12 UTC   *

++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++

 ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152008 AL15       10/14/08  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  55.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 850-700 mb RH         :  81.8 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 % area of IR TEMP <-30:  97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/ -0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.5 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :  91.8 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.0

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    52% is   4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    36% is   4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    28% is   5.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    28% is  11.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++
                    FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND       

AL15       Initial vmax, lat, lon:    35.   14.3   -69.1

 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    55%,   no lightning input, exper. algorithm
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    68%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm

Recent Lightning Density History  (Strikes/km2-year)
Date/Time    Inner core (0-100 km)  Rainband (300-400 km)
08 1014 12    14.4                   137.6
08 1014 06   102.5                    25.8
08 1014 00   246.7                     4.2
08 1013 18    76.7                    33.3
08 1013 12    92.5                    75.8

Sample mean:  21.5                    14.7

 Note: Inner core lightning <  sample mean favors RI
       Rainband lightning   >  sample mean favors RI

++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++
                    FOR JHT     

 ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152008 AL15       10/14/08  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/ -0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  55.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:   0.0 Range: 94.6 to   0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  -1.1 Range:  2.2 to  -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.5 Range: 26.0 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :  91.8 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):  57.6 Range:648.0 to  15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    51% is   4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    42% is   5.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    19% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    14% is   4.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)