* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP16 EP162008 10/12/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP162008 EP16 10/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP16 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 25. 19.0 -105.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1012 12 4.8 0.0 08 1012 06 20.9 1.5 08 1012 00 0.0 1.5 08 1011 18 2.5 0.5 08 1011 12 0.5 17.3 08 1011 06 3.6 14.8 08 1011 00 5.7 2.6 08 1010 18 9.9 0.0 08 1010 12 1.0 0.0 08 1010 06 29.1 1.0 08 1010 00 0.0 13.0 08 1009 18 0.0 123.8 08 1009 12 0.0 58.4 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP162008 EP16 10/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)