* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP15 EP152008 10/09/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP152008 EP15 10/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 80. 17.9 -112.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1009 18 0.0 0.0 08 1009 12 0.0 0.0 08 1009 06 0.0 0.0 08 1009 00 0.0 0.0 08 1008 18 0.0 0.0 08 1008 12 0.0 0.8 08 1008 06 23.6 0.0 08 1008 00 4.6 0.0 08 1007 18 17.8 2.9 08 1007 12 6.9 29.4 08 1007 06 8.1 5.8 08 1007 00 4.6 3.5 08 1006 18 1.0 35.7 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP152008 EP15 10/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:9999.0 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 494.8 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ -0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.8%)