* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP16 EP162008 10/09/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP162008 EP16 10/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP16 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 12.6 -94.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1009 12 0.0 160.0 08 1009 06 0.6 105.1 08 1009 00 0.6 31.5 08 1008 18 0.0 23.9 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP162008 EP16 10/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.0 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.8%)