* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP15 EP152008 10/08/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP152008 EP15 10/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP15 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 90. 15.6 -108.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 1008 00 12.8 0.0 08 1007 18 17.8 2.9 08 1007 12 6.9 29.4 08 1007 06 8.1 5.8 08 1007 00 4.6 3.5 08 1006 18 1.0 35.7 08 1006 12 0.0 12.2 08 1006 06 0.5 1.5 08 1006 00 1.5 6.6 08 1005 18 31.1 23.4 08 1005 12 9.7 11.2 08 1005 06 0.5 0.5 08 1005 00 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP152008 EP15 10/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.7 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 477.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 12.9 times the sample mean( 3.8%)