* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL08 AL082008 08/31/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL082008 AL08 08/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL08 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 23.5 -71.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0831 18 3.2 8.0 08 0831 12 71.1 28.7 08 0831 06 17.8 27.4 08 0831 00 15.7 7.5 08 0830 18 72.5 8.9 08 0830 12 0.0 19.1 08 0830 06 8.9 13.0 08 0830 00 1.3 8.4 08 0829 18 247.1 14.8 08 0829 12 0.0 13.5 08 0829 06 1.3 18.7 08 0829 00 6.5 5.8 08 0828 18 6.7 12.2 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL082008 AL08 08/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:9999.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 203.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)