* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL07 AL072008 08/26/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL072008 AL07 08/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 mb RH : 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL07 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 80. 17.6 -72.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0826 12 6.4 38.4 08 0826 06 3.1 3.1 08 0826 00 0.0 16.5 08 0825 18 0.0 7.8 08 0825 12 0.8 3.3 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL072008 AL07 08/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 363.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)