* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP11 EP112008 08/24/08 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP112008 EP11 08/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP11 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 21.0 -109.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0824 06 16.0 22.4 08 0824 00 9.6 0.5 08 0823 18 14.4 0.0 08 0823 12 0.6 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP112008 EP11 08/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)