* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL06 AL062008 08/18/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL062008 AL06 08/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL06 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 23.2 -81.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0818 12 0.0 24.0 08 0818 06 130.2 6.5 08 0818 00 18.4 2.2 08 0817 18 13.5 50.7 08 0817 12 18.6 29.9 08 0817 06 18.5 22.0 08 0817 00 24.2 5.7 08 0816 18 0.8 21.2 08 0816 12 256.5 3.1 08 0816 06 109.8 5.5 08 0816 00 94.9 1.6 08 0815 18 145.0 13.3 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL062008 AL06 08/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)