* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL92 AL922008 08/15/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL922008 AL92 08/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 mb RH : 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL92 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 18.6 -68.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0815 18 278.4 25.6 08 0815 12 492.5 26.7 08 0815 06 426.7 6.7 08 0815 00 68.5 2.4 08 0814 18 3.2 0.0 08 0814 12 0.8 0.0 08 0814 06 19.6 0.0 08 0814 00 0.0 0.0 08 0813 18 0.0 0.0 08 0813 12 0.0 2.8 08 0813 00 0.0 0.7 08 0812 18 0.7 0.7 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL922008 AL92 08/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.1 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)