* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL05 AL052008 08/04/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL052008 AL05 08/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 28.1 -90.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0804 12 4.8 0.0 08 0804 06 31.1 0.0 08 0804 00 0.0 2.7 08 0803 18 0.9 4.5 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL052008 AL05 08/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.3 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 216.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)