* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL99 AL992008 08/02/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL992008 AL99 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL99 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 18.6 -44.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0802 18 112.0 0.0 08 0802 12 65.7 0.0 08 0802 00 0.0 0.0 08 0801 12 90.7 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL992008 AL99 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.5 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 237.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)