* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP08 EP082008 07/26/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP082008 EP08 07/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP08 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 17.4 -120.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0726 18 3.2 0.0 08 0726 12 0.0 0.0 08 0726 06 0.8 0.0 08 0726 00 0.8 0.0 08 0725 18 4.1 0.0 08 0725 12 0.0 0.0 08 0725 06 0.0 0.0 08 0725 00 0.0 0.0 08 0724 18 0.0 0.0 08 0724 12 0.0 0.0 08 0724 06 0.0 0.0 08 0724 00 0.0 0.0 08 0723 18 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) EPAC RE-RUN RII EP082008 EP08 07/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.6 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)