* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL03 AL032008 07/19/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL032008 AL03 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 mb RH : 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL03 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 32.8 -78.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0719 18 1.6 9.6 08 0719 12 0.8 24.9 08 0719 06 2.3 18.9 08 0719 00 10.6 3.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL032008 AL03 07/19/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)