* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL95 AL952008 07/18/08 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL952008 AL95 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 mb RH : 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL95 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 13.7 -83.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0718 00 0.0 48.0 08 0717 18 0.0 19.7 08 0717 12 0.7 4.8 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL952008 AL95 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)