* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL95 AL952008 07/17/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL952008 AL95 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 mb RH : 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL95 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 25. 13.6 -82.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0717 18 0.0 46.4 08 0717 12 0.7 4.8 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL952008 AL95 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.7 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)