* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP07 EP072008 07/17/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP072008 EP07 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP07 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 11.2 -103.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0717 12 0.0 56.0 08 0717 06 26.0 17.8 08 0717 00 9.7 1.5 08 0716 12 287.8 3.6 08 0716 06 24.5 1.2 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP072008 EP07 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)