* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL02 AL022008 07/07/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL022008 AL02 07/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 mb RH : 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 90. 19.9 -51.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0707 18 3.2 0.0 08 0707 12 0.0 0.0 08 0707 06 0.9 1.7 08 0707 00 0.0 0.0 08 0706 18 6.0 0.0 08 0706 12 9.6 0.0 08 0706 06 0.0 0.0 08 0706 00 0.0 0.0 08 0705 18 0.0 0.0 08 0705 12 0.0 0.0 08 0705 06 0.0 0.0 08 0705 00 0.0 0.0 08 0704 18 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL022008 AL02 07/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.1 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 696.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)