* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EP02 EP022008 07/01/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP022008 EP02 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 14.8 -125.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0701 18 0.0 0.0 08 0701 12 0.0 0.0 08 0701 06 0.0 0.0 08 0701 00 0.0 0.0 08 0630 18 49.6 0.0 08 0630 12 4.5 0.0 08 0630 06 0.0 0.0 08 0630 00 5.8 0.8 08 0629 18 0.0 0.0 08 0629 12 0.0 0.0 08 0629 06 3.0 0.0 08 0629 00 7.6 0.0 08 0628 18 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC RII EP022008 EP02 07/01/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.5 Range: 21.7 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 224.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.8%)