* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 mb RH : 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 18.1 -90.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0601 12 0.0 92.8 08 0601 06 0.0 69.1 08 0601 00 0.0 26.0 08 0531 18 0.0 4.1 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII 002008 06/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:9999.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)