http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif Expert discussions about recent ENSO evolution: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Seasonal forecast targeted for tropical Atlantic: http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/iasclip/documentation/IASCLIP_ASO_2012.pdf neutral pattern