* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 49 55 58 62 66 69 75 75 79 77 78 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 49 55 58 62 66 60 59 59 63 58 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 45 48 49 50 53 59 67 56 60 63 61 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 11 11 6 13 4 5 12 16 12 17 15 23 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 3 5 13 7 3 0 0 4 3 8 2 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 355 354 331 304 317 325 313 263 297 273 287 278 297 293 305 298 269 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.5 29.2 29.6 29.5 28.7 28.3 28.5 29.2 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 141 142 139 139 138 146 157 164 161 147 140 143 154 129 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 141 142 139 139 138 146 153 158 150 132 123 124 133 112 107 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 69 69 68 64 63 63 63 69 74 73 70 68 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 23 21 24 21 20 19 19 20 20 22 21 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 73 70 61 60 51 28 6 -6 -27 -16 -25 -26 -61 -15 -26 200 MB DIV 54 69 88 75 29 2 42 48 15 4 33 87 38 37 39 70 54 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 16 12 1 3 6 10 33 19 28 29 32 LAND (KM) 600 560 578 435 251 388 252 67 56 92 -11 78 111 51 5 -58 9 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 14.1 16.0 17.6 18.7 20.2 22.1 23.9 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 52.5 54.7 57.1 59.6 64.8 69.6 73.3 76.3 78.8 80.8 82.0 82.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 24 25 26 26 22 17 14 14 12 9 8 7 8 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 35 40 34 31 36 20 36 81 50 65 20 22 34 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -5. -6. -4. -6. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 20. 23. 27. 31. 34. 40. 40. 44. 42. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.9 50.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 18.4% 11.4% 7.3% 6.5% 10.0% 13.6% 33.4% Logistic: 5.4% 16.5% 7.9% 2.6% 1.4% 4.8% 7.1% 13.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 18.4% 4.4% 0.4% 0.3% 2.6% 9.2% 4.3% Consensus: 4.6% 17.8% 7.9% 3.4% 2.8% 5.8% 10.0% 17.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 47 49 55 58 62 66 60 59 59 63 58 38 38 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 45 51 54 58 62 56 55 55 59 54 34 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 39 45 48 52 56 50 49 49 53 48 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 36 39 43 47 41 40 40 44 39 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT