* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP13 EP132011 11/24/11 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP132011 EP13 11/24/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP13 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 13.6 -121.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1124 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132011 EP13 11/24/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.4 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 322.0 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.0%)