* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP13 EP132011 11/20/11 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 E. Pacific Re-run RII EP132011 EP13 11/20/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 23.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.0%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP13 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 11.4 -105.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1120 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132011 EP13 11/20/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 144.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.2 Range: 49.5 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 Range: 2.1 to -1.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 73.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.4 Range:638.0 to -19.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 Range: 22.5 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.0%)