* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL19 AL192011 11/09/11 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL192011 AL19 11/09/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 55. 28.3 -70.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 1%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1109 18 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192011 AL19 11/09/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 85.4 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 308.4 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)