* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL18 AL182011 10/27/11 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2011 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL182011 AL18 10/27/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL18 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 65. 18.9 -87.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 11 1027 12 ****** ****** Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2011 EXPERIMENTAL(nudge) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 AL18 10/27/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 30.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.3 Range:100.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 Range: 2.4 to -3.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 143.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 352.4 Range:960.3 to 4.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 Range: 22.5 to 121.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.2%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.3%)